The 2 Cycles of a Financial Extraction Heat Engine

Your whole idea of buying every dip through ETF and chill is a 13-year illusion. 100 years of S&P 500 real returns, split into regimes: – 1928-1948: 0.6% a year – 1949-1968: 12.7% – 1969-1984: 0.5% – 1985-1999: 15.1% – 2000-2012: -0.8% – 2013-2025: 11.8% Notice the rhythm. A golden era, then a dead one. Feast, famine, feast, famine. Not one regime in a century simply continued. The long-term average of 7% real that everyone plans with? Almost no generation actually experienced it. You got 12%, or you got zero. The average is a fiction made of two extremes. Everyone who started investing after 2009 has only known the feast. Buy the dip worked every single time. Not because it's a law. Because you happened to live inside the blue bar. But the current run is already as long and as rich as the two golden eras before it. And every one of them ended the same way: not with a warning, with a decade. Mean reversion doesn't announce itself. It just stops paying. The next 0.5% decade will feel impossible right up until it starts. It always has.

 

All the Unlucky Events Surrounding Diesel and Oil Shortages Look a Bit too Convenient

I understand there are coincidences but there are just too many things lining up.  Many of them obviously arranged.  Ukraine firing into Russia with US hardware is hardly the malignant little dwarf Zelenskyy acting on his own. 

US Spy Satellite Breaks Up Mysteriously Weeks After a Chinese Spy Satellite Breaks Up Mysteriously

Satellites go whirring around the Earth endlessly because they have only micro-G forces on them.  So spontaneously breaking up in orbit is an unlikely event.  You have to hit debri. But given

You'll have to rate me as skeptical.  The West is ruled by gangsters.   More power to the engineers of China.  I'm sick of it.  The bankers rule and they want their cut of everything the world does.  Oil protection racket coming to an endin the middle east?  Well burn the proprietor's business down then.  Could it be more obvious.  Remember this criminaltiy will be turned on the American people at some point.  It already has but I mean in a way we have not seen yet.

This is how you close the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al Mandab Strait without getting blamed for it

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

Once you realize everything is scripted, the world starts making a lot more sense.

Back in December 2025, Saudi Arabia backed the UAE's removal of all troops from Yemen, who were fighting the Houthis.

Exactly 2 months later Israel & Trump bombed Iran.

Now the Houthis have captured the Red Sea transportation route, Saudi Arabia is pretending to fight them and the U.S. is sitting back watching.

The U.S. doesn't want either transportation routes open.
Their goal is to starve the world of fuel and Dollars.

All wars are banker wars

 

U.S. wants to take Gibraltar from UK and Ceuta from Spain to control yet another maritime choke point

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

The U.S. wants to take Gibraltar from UK and Ceuta from Spain to control yet another maritime choke point. This ‘cyberattack’ looks like narrative shaping to me.

 


I yi yi. If they say it is Iran it is most likely not Iran. Their lies are so tiresome and bad. We deserve better lies. How obvious could it be. USA no longer manufactures hard goods so it takes control of the world's choke points. That has been obvious for near a year now.

Big Bosses of US frontier AI labs are Scared of China.

By now, it's amply clear that the big bosses of US frontier AI labs are really, really scared of China. And, fascinatingly, part of the answer why might be a tiny place in Inner Mongolia that you've probably never heard of: Ulanqab prefecture. Heard of it? Didn't think so. Even myself, who's traveled to Inner Mongolia twice, had never heard of it before researching this story. This is because, at first glance, this place is pretty unremarkable. Check its Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulanqab) and you’ll see the only thing it’s famous for is being the birthplace of He Pingping, who briefly held the Guinness record for world’s shortest man. That’s it, that’s the list! Otherwise, it's just a sparsely populated – 1.5 million people, minuscule by Chinese standards – stretch of windswept grassland on the Mongolian plateau. Except there is one number that tells you there is more to this place that meets the eye: this tiny prefecture consumes nearly 1% of all of China's electricity – and that number is growing by double digit numbers every year. And yes, I did write **consume**, not produce. In fact, when you divide Ulanqab's electricity consumption by the number of households living there, each household in this remote corner of Inner Mongolia "consumes" about 105,000 kWh in electricity, roughly 10 times the U.S. average. Insane electricity consumption numbers. So what are the Ulanqabese doing? Are they all running 10 American households' worth of appliances? Here is another number that might clue you in on the answer: over the past few years, this unremarkable prefecture has quietly signed over half a trillion yuan (and, yes, that’s trillion, with a "T") worth of investment deals from all the major Chinese tech giants. What is going on, you'll have guessed by now, is the most ambitious data center buildup anywhere on earth – and it's really surprising this hasn't been talked about more because the scale is beyond anything else, and by an immense margin. Take Elon Musk's so-called "Colossus" datacenter in Memphis, Tennessee which he pitches as "the world’s largest AI supercomputer." According to their own numbers (https://x.ai/colossus), Colossus has 200,000 chips, which, let's be clear, is already super impressive. In datacenter lingo, this converts to roughly 5000-6000 "racks": you know, the fridge-sized cabinets full of blinking lights you see in every movie scene set in a server room. How many racks are they building in Ulanqab? Over 5 million. Yes, about one thousand times the scale of "Colossus" I tripled-checked the number: it is indeed the official number published by authoritative sources such as "Science and Technology Daily", the official newspaper of China's Ministry of Science and Technology (https://stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2026-08/20/content_567111.html). This is an absurdly large amount of compute. What we see appearing in this Inner Mongolian steppe may be the closest thing to a world brain humanity has ever built – a place where a large share of the world's thinking will physically happen. And – as we'll see – what makes this story so fascinating is not just the scale, but why it's getting built in this particular patch of Inner Mongolian grassland which combines a number of characteristics unlike anywhere else. If you believe, as I do – and as both China and the US obviously do as well – that AI will be the defining technology of the 21st century, this makes Ulanqab one of the single most relevant geopolitical places in the world right now. The full story – the Chinese government plan Ulanqab is part of, energy prices, chips and the strategic questions this raises – is here: https://arnaudbertrand.substack.com/p/the-most-important-ai-story-in-the?r=4r0pw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Carry Trade Unwind Starts And It Started Today Japanese short rates are exploding.

This Is How a Carry Trade Unwind Starts And It Started Today An absolute bloodbath was witnessed in Japan’s financial markets. Short-term JGB yields went VERTICAL today. The 3-month yield smashed 1.25%, highest in 31.5 YEARS and the 6-month hit 1.34%, highest in 31 years. Two years ago these were NEGATIVE. Now they’re ripping like a bond crisis is already here. At the same time SoftBank got DESTROYED. Shares plunged over 15% intraday, closed down 10.7%. Roughly $8 billion wiped off Masayoshi Son’s fortune in one session. SoftBank owns ~13% of OpenAI, right in the blast zone as AI labs suddenly start talking “slowdown.” This is not isolated. The BOJ is hiking. Japanese short rates are exploding. The cheap-yen carry trade that funded years of US stocks, Treasuries, and risk assets is starting to unwind. Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries. When they sell (or stop buying) to chase higher domestic yields or cover losses, US yields spike too. Higher US yields + carry unwind + AI narrative cracking = the exact cocktail that produces a bloodbath. Markets spent months pricing infinite AI acceleration and infinite cheap Japanese money. Both assumptions just took a body blow on the same day. From global stocks, bonds, banking, derivatives to AI, Oil and Global Energy. The extent of Japan’s free money catastrophe is unfathomable. If the BoJ’s@yutokanzakireal warning indeed happens, we are going to see the biggest global financial bloodbath in decades.

 

Went to Petra in Jordan. If you ever wanted to go, go now. It’s the value investor opportunity of a lifetime. The place is absolutely empty. Less than 200 visitors a day, down from 5,000+ previously (down ~95%). Hotels are cheap. Food is great. Amazing guides are available and you literally get the place to yourself…