Commodities

Saudi Oil Flowing Through Hormuz and by Whose Leave?

Simon can not seem to keep it short.  He steams along like a tea kettle.

 SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING IS HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Reuters reports Saudi Aramco loaded around 14 MILLION barrels of crude onto seven VLCCs at Gulf terminals on Sunday.

Satellite images reportedly show seven tankers around Ras Tanura.

Why is this interesting?

Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline was attacked and shut down.

That pipeline exists specifically to allow Saudi crude to bypass Hormuz and reach the Red Sea.

So what happened next?

Saudi dramatically increased crude exports THROUGH Hormuz.

And Reuters reports Aramco has sold around 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for September and October with cargoes intended for ship to ship transfers at Sohar.

Oman.

So the emerging route looks like:

Ras Tanura
Strait of Hormuz
Sohar
 Asian buyers

Now it gets interesting.

Iran has been restricting shipping through Hormuz.

Iran and Oman have simultaneously been negotiating a temporary navigation corridor, mine clearance, information sharing, traffic management and eventually a longer term framework for the Strait.

And now millions of barrels of Saudi crude are moving through Hormuz towards Oman.

I have NOT found evidence yet that Iran gave Saudi Arabia permission or that these tankers are part of an Iran Saudi agreement.

That distinction matters.

But the question now becomes unavoidable.

If Iran controls the threat environment around Hormuz, Oman is negotiating the navigation architecture and Saudi is dramatically increasing crude movements through the Strait, exactly how are these tankers being deconflicted?

Who is guaranteeing passage?

 Iran?

 Oman?

The US?

Or some combination negotiated behind the scenes?

This is what I’m watching.

Because if evidence emerges that Iran is knowingly facilitating Saudi crude passage while Oman acts as the intermediary and transshipment node, that would be much more significant than seven tankers.

It would be another piece of the regional architecture I believe is emerging as the Forever War winds down.

Don’t follow the rhetoric.

Follow the oil.

By Idi Admin, ago